June 3, 2021
Constraints on Labor Supply Should Prove Temporary
To download a PDF version, please click here. Total nonfarm employment in the US remains...
Perspectives Topic:
Market and Economics
April 14, 2021
Phantom Jobless Claims Mask the Labor Market Recovery
To download a PDF version, please click here. We’ve written ad nauseum in these pages...
March 9, 2021
Tantrum Without the Taper: FAQ on Recent Market Volatility
To download a PDF version, please click here. The recent volatility in bond markets has...
November 19, 2020
A Conversation About The October Payrolls Report
To download a PDF version, please click here. Overheard on the NISA trading floor, Friday,...
October 29, 2020
Making Up Is Hard To Do: The Fed Adopts An Average Inflation Target Part II
To download a PDF version, please click here. In a post earlier this week, we...
October 27, 2020
Making Up Is Hard To Do: The Fed Adopts An Average Inflation Target
To download a PDF version, please click here. In a landmark speech at the Jackson...
October 20, 2020
Initial Jobless Claims Only Tell Half The Story, And It’s Not The Good Half
To download a PDF version, please click here. Regular readers will know we’ve been on...
October 8, 2020
Service Required: The Unique Structural Impact of the 2020 Recession
To download a PDF version, please click here. The pandemic caused a recession unlike any...
August 28, 2020
Progress
To download a PDF version, please click here. As we have been saying, the seasonal...
August 19, 2020
Willing to Concede the S&P at 3750+? Equity Protection Strategies, Enter Stage Left
To download a PDF version, please click here. The combination of near all-time highs for...
July 30, 2020
Seasonally Maladjusted: How Statistical Methods Have Destroyed 3.7 Million Jobs Since March
To download a PDF version, please click here. In this short note we demonstrate, primarily...
July 9, 2020
Labor Market Update: Objects in Mirror are Better than They Appear
To download a PDF version, please click here. The labor market continued its spectacular recovery...
June 15, 2020
A 10 Million Job Surprise
To download a PDF version, please click here. The May jobs report produced the biggest...
May 20, 2020
The Fed’s Crisis Playbook: Speak Softly and Carry an Unlimited Balance Sheet
To download a PDF version, please click here. COVID-19 has delivered an economic shock of...
April 24, 2020
A Recession Unlike Any Other
To download a PDF version, please click here. The longest expansion in U.S. economic history...
March 12, 2020
Treasury Yields: How Low Can They Go?
To download a PDF version, please click here. This has been a frequent question from...
March 6, 2020
Coronavirus Fear Shocks Global Markets
To download a PDF version, please click here. Coronavirus has sent shockwaves throughout global financial...
November 18, 2019
State of the US Consumer in Four Charts
To download a PDF version, please click here. With no shortage of economic uncertainty in...
October 9, 2019
FAQ: What Happened in the Repo Market Last Month?
To download a PDF version, please click here. A volatile September in the normally placid...
September 4, 2019
Monetary Policy in the U.S. is Being Determined by European (Japanese) Financial Markets
To download a PDF version, please click here. As we approach the next Fed meeting...
August 21, 2019
Global Bond Yields Plunge to Record Lows
To download a PDF version, please click here. Bond yields have fallen dramatically around the...
July 10, 2019
The Waiting is the Hardest Part: An Update on the LIBOR Transition
To download a PDF version, please click here. The LIBOR transition continues. As we have...
January 3, 2019
Market Bids Farewell to the Fed’s Tightening Cycle
To download a PDF version, please click here. The last seven weeks have seen a...
November 14, 2018
SOFR, So Good
To download a PDF version, please click here. The LIBOR transition continues. A global effort...
October 16, 2018
China, the Goliath of the Treasury Market
To download a PDF version, please click here. After the latest round of the trade...
June 19, 2018
Fed’s Technical Adjustment to IOER is a Sign of Things to Come
To download a PDF version, please click here. It was a surprise to no one...
December 11, 2017
Anticipating the FIFO Rule
To download a PDF version, please click here. As the effort to reform the U.S....
December 5, 2017
The Phillips Curve is Dead, Long Live the Phillips Curve!
To download a PDF version, please click here. The Phillips Curve describes the relationship between...
November 2, 2017
Fed Takes First Step of $2 Trillion Journey
To download a PDF version, please click here. The Federal Reserve took the first step...
July 28, 2017
The Beginning of the End for LIBOR
To download a PDF version, please click here. The end is nigh for the London...
May 19, 2017
Go Long!
To download a PDF version, please click here. The Treasury Department is considering issuing an...
March 10, 2017
Taking A Hike
To download a PDF version, please click here. It is a well-known market truism that...
January 5, 2017
Trumponomics – Two Scenarios for Fiscal Stimulus
To download a PDF version, please click here. Changes in yields can provide insights into...
July 26, 2016
Grading Rates on a Curve
To download a PDF version, please click here. Can rates in the U.S. only go...
June 29, 2016
Have Cash – Will Carry: Another Simple Strategy to Help Enhance Cash Yields
To download a PDF version, please click here. As the (seemingly) never-ending search for yield...
May 11, 2016
Bonds Without Borders
To download a PDF version, please click here. It may pay to be a little...
December 10, 2015
Fed Liftoff: More Questions than Answers
To download a PDF version, please click here. Markets are currently implying nearly an 80%...
December 3, 2015
Our Take on Negative Swap Spreads
To download a PDF version, please click here. While the topic may not have come...