Phantom Jobless Claims Mask the Labor Market Recovery
We’ve written ad nauseum in these pages about the distorted and misleading economic data that have been produced during the unprecedented economic volatility of...
Perspectives Topic:
We’ve written ad nauseum in these pages about the distorted and misleading economic data that have been produced during the unprecedented economic volatility of...
The recent volatility in bond markets has prompted quite a few inquiries from clients. Here we consolidate our thoughts on the most frequently asked...
Earlier this year, a change occurred with respect to fixed income security pricing that many service providers in the industry (e.g., custodians, recordkeepers, etc.)...
Overheard on the NISA trading floor, Friday, November 6, 2020. Jess Yawitz: “Another strong payrolls report this morning, eh?” Stephen Douglass: “Yep, the jobs...
In a post earlier this week, we explained how the Fed’s new flexible average inflation targeting (AIT) framework is motivated by a desire to...
In a landmark speech at the Jackson Hole conference in late August, Chairman Powell announced the first significant revision to the Fed’s operating framework...
Regular readers will know we’ve been on somewhat of a campaign against economic disinformation this year, describing how data errors and faulty seasonal adjustments...
The pandemic caused a recession unlike any other in American history. We’ve previously discussed the unprecedented speed of the shock itself and the policy...
As we have been saying, the seasonal adjustment process for initial jobless claims has been wholly inappropriate given the scale of job losses during...
In this short note we demonstrate, primarily using a few examples and data points, how totally inappropriate it is to seasonally adjust initial unemployment...
The labor market continued its spectacular recovery in June. The jobs report released on Friday reflected a net gain of 4.8 million jobs, almost...
The May jobs report produced the biggest surprise we have ever seen from an economic data release. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million...
COVID-19 has delivered an economic shock of unprecedented speed and severity. The Federal Reserve under Chairman Powell has responded with the most aggressive policy...
The longest expansion in U.S. economic history ended in February. March ushered in a recession that will be unlike any other we have seen...
I know this is not the time for a long note on rebalancing theory and best practices. That said, current market conditions will make...
This has been a frequent question from clients in the past week as the spike in cross-asset volatility sent Treasury yields plunging to record...
With no shortage of economic uncertainty in the world, it is natural to ask whether the US consumer can continue as the primary engine...
A volatile September in the normally placid money markets inspired a number of client inquiries, and a few overzealous headline writers in the financial...
As we approach the next Fed meeting in September, expect more chatter on 1) whether they should ease and 2) what the inverted Treasury...
Bond yields have fallen dramatically around the world this month, driven by the latest escalation of the trade war as well as signals that...
The LIBOR transition continues. As we have outlined in previous notes, we are six years into a global effort to replace LIBOR with more...
The last seven weeks have seen a dramatic repricing of the expected path of monetary policy. As recently as November 8, the fed funds...
The LIBOR transition continues. A global effort has been underway since 2013 to reduce dependency on LIBOR, the benchmark interest rate discredited by a...
After the latest round of the trade war, China has imposed tariffs on nearly all of the $130 billion in annual goods imports from...
It was a surprise to no one when the Federal Reserve hiked rates this past Wednesday. The purpose of this note is to describe...
As the effort to reform the U.S. tax code speeds through the legislative process, it is clear that, whatever the specifics of the ultimate...
The Phillips Curve describes the relationship between unemployment and inflation. First proposed in 1958, the theory holds that a low unemployment rate reflects a...
The Federal Reserve took the first step this week of what will be a long journey towards normalizing its balance sheet after buying nearly...
The end is nigh for the London Interbank Offered Rate. The CEO of the British markets regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, announced yesterday that...
Summary We examined the statistics behind the claim that large pensions drag down a company’s valuation and accordingly how annuity buyouts allow a sponsor...
The Treasury Department is considering issuing an ultra-long bond with a maturity greater than 30 years. The idea was first raised in post-election interviews...
It is a well-known market truism that the Fed tries to avoid surprising markets with its monetary policy decisions, especially when those decisions result...
The ongoing equity rally and the rise in Treasury yields prompted us to revisit this analysis. Between yesterday’s close (December 1) and November 10,...
It has been an interesting week. Regardless of your political leanings, Tuesday’s election seems to have already produced another unlikely winner: defined benefit plan...
Can rates in the U.S. only go up from here? With Treasury yields reaching historical lows recently, it may be tempting to think of...
As the (seemingly) never-ending search for yield continues in year eight of the “low for long era,” an oldie but a goodie comes to...
It may pay to be a little more cosmopolitan when it comes to your bond portfolio. Yield differences between comparable maturity instruments in different...
When you go to a restaurant for a nice meal, do you prefer to order from the prix fixe menu or go the à...
We talk with a lot of pension plan sponsors who strategically want to hedge their liabilities by buying long duration corporate bonds but who...
The advent of investable risk premia indices brings beta overlay to a new level. These tools allow investors to adjust the pre-packaged factor weights...
January’s steep drop in equity prices and rise in bond prices mean that many institutional investors are thinking about the same thing: rebalancing. With...
Returns will be hard to come by in 2016. That is perhaps the least controversial prediction we can offer for the New Year. Though...
Brazil’s sovereign debt was recently downgraded below investment grade (IG). Before the downgrade, its index-eligible bonds were included in both the Barclays US Credit...
Markets are currently implying nearly an 80% probability that on December 16th the fed funds target range will be raised by 25 basis points....
While the topic may not have come up at the Thanksgiving table, it’s one of the most discussed issues in the markets right now:...
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