Perspectives

Mortgage Refinancing Market Awakens from Hibernation

Author

Stephen Douglass

Stephen Douglass

Chief Economist

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Mortgage applications rose by 29.7% in the week that ended September 12, driven by a surge in refinancing as mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level in more than two years. The MBA Mortgage Refinancing Index jolted awake last week after hibernating near a quarter-century low for most of 2023-2024. That hibernation followed a historic surge in refinancing activity as millions of borrowers took advantage of the Fed’s ultra-loose policy stance during and after the pandemic.

As of Q1 2022, 76.1% of all mortgage debt outstanding carried an interest rate below 4% and 33.3% carried an interest rate below 3%. Those low-rate shares have declined steadily since 2022 as a less fortunate cohort of homebuyers borrowed north of 7% in the last couple of years. The recent refinancing spike shows that they are finally getting some relief.

Refi Rebound graphs

Stephen Douglass

Stephen Douglass

Chief Economist

Stephen analyzes the global economy, monetary and fiscal policy, as well as interest rate markets. He is a leading voice on economic, market and portfolio matters—engaging…

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