PCE is set to be released Thursday and is anticipated to sharpen market views on the strength of spending. Consumer spending has been steady despite higher energy costs driving inflation, but this resilience may be tested going forward.
NISA Chief Economist Stephen Douglass was quoted in the Financial Times with his perspective as saying:
“The hope is that energy prices will keep going down and real income will grow again at a faster pace and catch up to spending. If that doesn’t happen, spending will have to slow. That’s a downside risk to the economy.”
Once the energy shock has subsided, Stephen expects disinflation to resume and the Fed to cut interest rates.
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