Perspectives Contributor:
In a post earlier this week, we explained how the Fed’s new flexible average inflation targeting (AIT) framework is motivated by a desire to...
In a landmark speech at the Jackson Hole conference in late August, Chairman Powell announced the first significant revision to the Fed’s operating framework...
Regular readers will know we’ve been on somewhat of a campaign against economic disinformation this year, describing how data errors and faulty seasonal adjustments...
The pandemic caused a recession unlike any other in American history. We’ve previously discussed the unprecedented speed of the shock itself and the policy...
As we have been saying, the seasonal adjustment process for initial jobless claims has been wholly inappropriate given the scale of job losses during...
In this short note we demonstrate, primarily using a few examples and data points, how totally inappropriate it is to seasonally adjust initial unemployment...
The labor market continued its spectacular recovery in June. The jobs report released on Friday reflected a net gain of 4.8 million jobs, almost...
The May jobs report produced the biggest surprise we have ever seen from an economic data release. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million...
COVID-19 has delivered an economic shock of unprecedented speed and severity. The Federal Reserve under Chairman Powell has responded with the most aggressive policy...
The longest expansion in U.S. economic history ended in February. March ushered in a recession that will be unlike any other we have seen...
This has been a frequent question from clients in the past week as the spike in cross-asset volatility sent Treasury yields plunging to record...
Coronavirus has sent shockwaves throughout global financial markets. Since mid-February major global equity indices are down by 10-20%, investment grade US dollar credit spreads...
With no shortage of economic uncertainty in the world, it is natural to ask whether the US consumer can continue as the primary engine...
A volatile September in the normally placid money markets inspired a number of client inquiries, and a few overzealous headline writers in the financial...
Bond yields have fallen dramatically around the world this month, driven by the latest escalation of the trade war as well as signals that...
The LIBOR transition continues. As we have outlined in previous notes, we are six years into a global effort to replace LIBOR with more...
The last seven weeks have seen a dramatic repricing of the expected path of monetary policy. As recently as November 8, the fed funds...
The LIBOR transition continues. A global effort has been underway since 2013 to reduce dependency on LIBOR, the benchmark interest rate discredited by a...
After the latest round of the trade war, China has imposed tariffs on nearly all of the $130 billion in annual goods imports from...
It was a surprise to no one when the Federal Reserve hiked rates this past Wednesday. The purpose of this note is to describe...
The Phillips Curve describes the relationship between unemployment and inflation. First proposed in 1958, the theory holds that a low unemployment rate reflects a...
The Federal Reserve took the first step this week of what will be a long journey towards normalizing its balance sheet after buying nearly...
The Treasury Department is considering issuing an ultra-long bond with a maturity greater than 30 years. The idea was first raised in post-election interviews...
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