Perspectives Contributor:

Stephen J. Douglass

June 3, 2021

Constraints on Labor Supply Should Prove Temporary 

To download a PDF version, please click here. Total nonfarm employment in the US remains...

April 14, 2021

Phantom Jobless Claims Mask the Labor Market Recovery

To download a PDF version, please click here. We’ve written ad nauseum in these pages...

March 9, 2021

Tantrum Without the Taper: FAQ on Recent Market Volatility

To download a PDF version, please click here. The recent volatility in bond markets has...

November 19, 2020

A Conversation About The October Payrolls Report

To download a PDF version, please click here. Overheard on the NISA trading floor, Friday,...

October 29, 2020

Making Up Is Hard To Do: The Fed Adopts An Average Inflation Target Part II

To download a PDF version, please click here. In a post earlier this week, we...

October 27, 2020

Making Up Is Hard To Do: The Fed Adopts An Average Inflation Target

To download a PDF version, please click here. In a landmark speech at the Jackson...

October 20, 2020

Initial Jobless Claims Only Tell Half The Story, And It’s Not The Good Half

To download a PDF version, please click here. Regular readers will know we’ve been on...

October 8, 2020

Service Required: The Unique Structural Impact of the 2020 Recession

To download a PDF version, please click here. The pandemic caused a recession unlike any...

August 28, 2020

Progress

To download a PDF version, please click here. As we have been saying, the seasonal...

July 30, 2020

Seasonally Maladjusted: How Statistical Methods Have Destroyed 3.7 Million Jobs Since March

To download a PDF version, please click here. In this short note we demonstrate, primarily...

July 9, 2020

Labor Market Update: Objects in Mirror are Better than They Appear

To download a PDF version, please click here. The labor market continued its spectacular recovery...

June 15, 2020

A 10 Million Job Surprise

To download a PDF version, please click here. The May jobs report produced the biggest...

May 20, 2020

The Fed’s Crisis Playbook: Speak Softly and Carry an Unlimited Balance Sheet

To download a PDF version, please click here. COVID-19 has delivered an economic shock of...

April 24, 2020

A Recession Unlike Any Other

To download a PDF version, please click here. The longest expansion in U.S. economic history...

March 12, 2020

Treasury Yields: How Low Can They Go?

To download a PDF version, please click here. This has been a frequent question from...

March 6, 2020

Coronavirus Fear Shocks Global Markets

To download a PDF version, please click here. Coronavirus has sent shockwaves throughout global financial...

November 18, 2019

State of the US Consumer in Four Charts

To download a PDF version, please click here. With no shortage of economic uncertainty in...

October 9, 2019

FAQ: What Happened in the Repo Market Last Month?

To download a PDF version, please click here. A volatile September in the normally placid...

August 21, 2019

Global Bond Yields Plunge to Record Lows

To download a PDF version, please click here. Bond yields have fallen dramatically around the...

July 10, 2019

The Waiting is the Hardest Part: An Update on the LIBOR Transition

To download a PDF version, please click here. The LIBOR transition continues. As we have...

January 3, 2019

Market Bids Farewell to the Fed’s Tightening Cycle

To download a PDF version, please click here. The last seven weeks have seen a...

November 14, 2018

SOFR, So Good

To download a PDF version, please click here. The LIBOR transition continues. A global effort...

October 16, 2018

China, the Goliath of the Treasury Market

To download a PDF version, please click here. After the latest round of the trade...

June 19, 2018

Fed’s Technical Adjustment to IOER is a Sign of Things to Come

To download a PDF version, please click here. It was a surprise to no one...

December 5, 2017

The Phillips Curve is Dead, Long Live the Phillips Curve!

To download a PDF version, please click here. The Phillips Curve describes the relationship between...

November 2, 2017

Fed Takes First Step of $2 Trillion Journey

To download a PDF version, please click here. The Federal Reserve took the first step...

May 19, 2017

Go Long!

To download a PDF version, please click here. The Treasury Department is considering issuing an...