A Conversation About The October Payrolls Report
Overheard on the NISA trading floor, Friday, November 6, 2020. Jess Yawitz: “Another strong payrolls report this morning, eh?” Stephen Douglass: “Yep, the jobs...
Overheard on the NISA trading floor, Friday, November 6, 2020. Jess Yawitz: “Another strong payrolls report this morning, eh?” Stephen Douglass: “Yep, the jobs...
In a post earlier this week, we explained how the Fed’s new flexible average inflation targeting (AIT) framework is motivated by a desire to...
In a landmark speech at the Jackson Hole conference in late August, Chairman Powell announced the first significant revision to the Fed’s operating framework...
Regular readers will know we’ve been on somewhat of a campaign against economic disinformation this year, describing how data errors and faulty seasonal adjustments...
As we have been saying, the seasonal adjustment process for initial jobless claims has been wholly inappropriate given the scale of job losses during...
In this short note we demonstrate, primarily using a few examples and data points, how totally inappropriate it is to seasonally adjust initial unemployment...
The labor market continued its spectacular recovery in June. The jobs report released on Friday reflected a net gain of 4.8 million jobs, almost...
The May jobs report produced the biggest surprise we have ever seen from an economic data release. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million...
The longest expansion in U.S. economic history ended in February. March ushered in a recession that will be unlike any other we have seen...
Coronavirus has sent shockwaves throughout global financial markets. Since mid-February major global equity indices are down by 10-20%, investment grade US dollar credit spreads...
With no shortage of economic uncertainty in the world, it is natural to ask whether the US consumer can continue as the primary engine...
As we approach the next Fed meeting in September, expect more chatter on 1) whether they should ease and 2) what the inverted Treasury...
The Treasury Department is considering issuing an ultra-long bond with a maturity greater than 30 years. The idea was first raised in post-election interviews...
The ongoing equity rally and the rise in Treasury yields prompted us to revisit this analysis. Between yesterday’s close (December 1) and November 10,...
It has been an interesting week. Regardless of your political leanings, Tuesday’s election seems to have already produced another unlikely winner: defined benefit plan...
I received some feedback asking whether the high correlation of managers both to beta and to each other applies to “Aggregate” managers as well....
When I was a kid, being called different never felt like a good thing. Fortunately, with age I have come to realize that sometimes...
Brazil’s sovereign debt was recently downgraded below investment grade (IG). Before the downgrade, its index-eligible bonds were included in both the Barclays US Credit...
Markets are currently implying nearly an 80% probability that on December 16th the fed funds target range will be raised by 25 basis points....
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