June 3, 2021
Constraints on Labor Supply Should Prove Temporary
To download a PDF version, please click here. Total nonfarm employment in the US remains...
April 14, 2021
Phantom Jobless Claims Mask the Labor Market Recovery
To download a PDF version, please click here. We’ve written ad nauseum in these pages...
November 19, 2020
A Conversation About The October Payrolls Report
To download a PDF version, please click here. Overheard on the NISA trading floor, Friday,...
October 29, 2020
Making Up Is Hard To Do: The Fed Adopts An Average Inflation Target Part II
To download a PDF version, please click here. In a post earlier this week, we...
October 27, 2020
Making Up Is Hard To Do: The Fed Adopts An Average Inflation Target
To download a PDF version, please click here. In a landmark speech at the Jackson...
October 20, 2020
Initial Jobless Claims Only Tell Half The Story, And It’s Not The Good Half
To download a PDF version, please click here. Regular readers will know we’ve been on...
August 28, 2020
Progress
To download a PDF version, please click here. As we have been saying, the seasonal...
July 30, 2020
Seasonally Maladjusted: How Statistical Methods Have Destroyed 3.7 Million Jobs Since March
To download a PDF version, please click here. In this short note we demonstrate, primarily...
July 9, 2020
Labor Market Update: Objects in Mirror are Better than They Appear
To download a PDF version, please click here. The labor market continued its spectacular recovery...
June 15, 2020
A 10 Million Job Surprise
To download a PDF version, please click here. The May jobs report produced the biggest...
April 24, 2020
A Recession Unlike Any Other
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March 6, 2020
Coronavirus Fear Shocks Global Markets
To download a PDF version, please click here. Coronavirus has sent shockwaves throughout global financial...
November 18, 2019
State of the US Consumer in Four Charts
To download a PDF version, please click here. With no shortage of economic uncertainty in...
September 4, 2019
Monetary Policy in the U.S. is Being Determined by European (Japanese) Financial Markets
To download a PDF version, please click here. As we approach the next Fed meeting...
May 19, 2017
Go Long!
To download a PDF version, please click here. The Treasury Department is considering issuing an...
December 2, 2016
Make Funded Status Great Again (Again)
To download a PDF version, please click here. The ongoing equity rally and the rise...
November 11, 2016
Make Funded Status Great Again
To download a PDF version, please click here. It has been an interesting week. Regardless...
June 8, 2016
There’s Beta in My Alpha! (Part 2)
To download a PDF version, please click here. I received some feedback asking whether the...
May 20, 2016
There’s Beta in My Alpha!
To download a PDF version, please click here. When I was a kid, being called...
December 22, 2015
Brazil Downgraded to Junk—But It’s Not High Yield!
To download a PDF version, please click here. Brazil’s sovereign debt was recently downgraded below...
December 10, 2015
Fed Liftoff: More Questions than Answers
To download a PDF version, please click here. Markets are currently implying nearly an 80%...