Perspectives Contributor:

Jess B. Yawitz, Ph.D.

June 3, 2021

Constraints on Labor Supply Should Prove Temporary 

To download a PDF version, please click here. Total nonfarm employment in the US remains...

April 14, 2021

Phantom Jobless Claims Mask the Labor Market Recovery

To download a PDF version, please click here. We’ve written ad nauseum in these pages...

November 19, 2020

A Conversation About The October Payrolls Report

To download a PDF version, please click here. Overheard on the NISA trading floor, Friday,...

October 29, 2020

Making Up Is Hard To Do: The Fed Adopts An Average Inflation Target Part II

To download a PDF version, please click here. In a post earlier this week, we...

October 27, 2020

Making Up Is Hard To Do: The Fed Adopts An Average Inflation Target

To download a PDF version, please click here. In a landmark speech at the Jackson...

October 20, 2020

Initial Jobless Claims Only Tell Half The Story, And It’s Not The Good Half

To download a PDF version, please click here. Regular readers will know we’ve been on...

August 28, 2020

Progress

To download a PDF version, please click here. As we have been saying, the seasonal...

July 30, 2020

Seasonally Maladjusted: How Statistical Methods Have Destroyed 3.7 Million Jobs Since March

To download a PDF version, please click here. In this short note we demonstrate, primarily...

July 9, 2020

Labor Market Update: Objects in Mirror are Better than They Appear

To download a PDF version, please click here. The labor market continued its spectacular recovery...

June 15, 2020

A 10 Million Job Surprise

To download a PDF version, please click here. The May jobs report produced the biggest...

April 24, 2020

A Recession Unlike Any Other

To download a PDF version, please click here. The longest expansion in U.S. economic history...

March 6, 2020

Coronavirus Fear Shocks Global Markets

To download a PDF version, please click here. Coronavirus has sent shockwaves throughout global financial...

November 18, 2019

State of the US Consumer in Four Charts

To download a PDF version, please click here. With no shortage of economic uncertainty in...

September 4, 2019

Monetary Policy in the U.S. is Being Determined by European (Japanese) Financial Markets

To download a PDF version, please click here. As we approach the next Fed meeting...

May 19, 2017

Go Long!

To download a PDF version, please click here. The Treasury Department is considering issuing an...

December 2, 2016

Make Funded Status Great Again (Again)

To download a PDF version, please click here. The ongoing equity rally and the rise...

November 11, 2016

Make Funded Status Great Again

To download a PDF version, please click here. It has been an interesting week. Regardless...

June 8, 2016

There’s Beta in My Alpha! (Part 2)

To download a PDF version, please click here. I received some feedback asking whether the...

May 20, 2016

There’s Beta in My Alpha!

To download a PDF version, please click here. When I was a kid, being called...

December 22, 2015

Brazil Downgraded to Junk—But It’s Not High Yield!

To download a PDF version, please click here. Brazil’s sovereign debt was recently downgraded below...

December 10, 2015

Fed Liftoff: More Questions than Answers

To download a PDF version, please click here. Markets are currently implying nearly an 80%...