Economic and Market Updates

Insights on economic and market events.

September 4, 2026

Strong Payrolls Report Doesn’t Change our Fed Outlook

August was a strong month for job creation. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 and the prior two months were revised higher by 55,000 total. Local government education payrolls increased by 42,000 to mostly reverse a decline of 50,000 reported in July. Smoothing through this distortion shows 3-month moving average job creation at 71,000, which is just slightly above the breakeven rate. Job creation was broad across industries as the 1-month diffusion index rose to 55.6%,…

SPX Implied VS Subsequent Realized Correlation

September 4, 2026

1 Minute Read

Derivatives Market Overview—August 2026

Derivatives Market Overview

September 1, 2026

Economic and Market Overview—August 2026

Equity indices gained modestly, the yield curve flattened and credit spreads were rangebound over a month in which the conflict with Iran dragged on and Kevin Warsh opened up in Jackson Hole.

August 11, 2026

Pension Surplus Risk Index (PSRX®)

The Pension Surplus Risk Index (PSRX®) fell 0.1% to 6.5%.

July 17, 2026

Talk Less, Smile More: A New Era of Fed Communications

David Eichhorn and Stephen Douglass discuss the communications changes that new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh has implemented in his first month on the job. The June FOMC Statement – which was the shortest since 1994 – provided one conspicuous example of the central bank’s newly-taciturn style.

July 8, 2026

Pension Risk Transfer (PRT)

NISA’s Pension Risk Transfer (PRT) Credit Risk Monitor is a market-based measure of the relative credit risk of common PRT annuity providers (“insurers”) designed to assist fiduciaries in identifying a “safest annuity available” PRT provider as required by the Department of Labor’s Interpretive Bulletin 95-1.